Dialogue topic the Future and a good book synopsis to generate questions for tomorrow Wednesday Octo

“Life is a mirror and will reflect back to the thinker what he thinks into it.” - Ernest Holmes

“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man.”

– Heraclitus

Here is a book synopsis for this week. Tomorrow (Wednesday, October 16) is our weekly dialogue at the Humainologie Gallery & Store, and our topic is "the Future." Bring one or two good questions about the future with you, and we'll have lots of good questions about the future as the framework for our dialogue. I plan to use the book by Hans Rosling to generate my question about the future. It's at 1514 Seventh Street SW and we start at 6 PM.

Arthur

Book: (Hans Rosling) Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think (2018)

The map is not the territory. Whenever we think about any aspect of reality, we are making a map – a set of abstractions, interpretations, memories, perceptions – our way of thinking about it. The maps we make are incredibly important because they determine our influence on reality, our happiness, and the well-being of those around us. This book is about how to make better maps.

The theme of the book could be stated as follows: Our “instincts” and news reports often mislead us into thinking things are getting worse when in fact things are getting better. This can lead to unnecessary fear and paralysis (missing opportunities). By paying attention to the evidence, we can make wiser decisions and be more effective. Like Dr. Julia Shaw’s book Evil: The Science Behind Humanity’s Dark Side, this one encourages us to think critically and carefully.

From the book jacket: “Hans Rosling was a medical doctor, professor of international health, and renowned public educator. He was an adviser to the World Health Organization and UNICEF, and he cofounded Médecins Sans Frontières in Sweden…. His TED talks have been viewed more than thirty-five million times, and he was listed as one of Time magazine’s one hundred most influential people in the world. Hans died in 2017, having devoted the last years of his life to writing this book.”

In his Introduction, Rosling compares the performance of chimpanzees to that of well-educated Swedes on a multiple-choice quiz about world events that indicate stasis, progress, or regression in the state of the world. The chimps do better than the well-educated Swedes. (Actually, he’s referring to random chance in selecting from the multiple-choice answers as the “chimpanzees,” but he makes a point in his own lively way.)

Many things in the world are getting better. In 1995, one of his students referred to the high birth rates among women in poorer countries and the high mortality rates of their infants. A graphic representation of data confirmed what she was saying, but it was based on data from 1965 (thirty years previously). A graphic based on recent data showed much lower birth rates and higher infant survival rates, a great improvement in just 30 years.

Rosling objects to being called an optimist because “That makes me sound naïve. I’m a very serious ‘possibilist.’ That’s something I made up. It means someone who neither hopes without reason, nor fears without reason, someone who constantly resists the overdramatic worldview. I see all this progress, and it fills me with conviction and hope that further progress is possible. … [This gives me] a worldview that is constructive and useful.” He emphasizes two things that are simultaneously true: 1) Things are bad AND 2) things are getting better. He suggests we think of the world as a premature baby in an incubator. The baby’s vital signs are bad. A week later, she’s improving. Should we relax and not be concerned? Absolutely not. Should we be aware of the progress and keep it going forward? Absolutely.

Ten of the book’s eleven chapters are devoted to ten “instincts” that can mislead us when we are thinking about reality. It includes indispensable ideas, so I’ll try to squeeze a lot in here.

In Chapter One, “The Gap Instinct,” it’s our instinct to think in terms of rich and poor, good and bad, with a gap separating the two opposites. Instead, things are typically on a spectrum. Rosling convinced the World Bank to start using four levels of income instead of just two (“developing” and “developed”) when they do their analysis, because that approach is much more useful in understanding what people are having to deal with. For a family living on less than two dollars per day (Level 1), basic necessities are much harder to secure than for a family in that same town who are living on seven or eight dollars a day (Level 2). Here in Canada of course, we are living at level 4 (more than 32 dollars a day per person) and that’s as good as it gets (in the 4-Level system of evaluation that Rosling developed).

In Chapter 2, “The Negativity Instinct,” we’re reminded that the “good news” happening every day will almost never be reported. The gradual improvement in the world is not news. Bad news is reported every day, so take it as reason for continued awareness but remember that the volume of bad news is not a reliable indicator of what most needs attention. Also: Beware of pictures of rosy pasts (as in “Make America Great Again”).

Chapter 3 shows how “The Straight-Line Instinct” can mislead us. A 3-year old boy who is 36 inches tall and is growing 3 inches a year would be eight and a half feet tall by the age of 25, right? You know he won’t, but other cases may be trickier. The rate of increase of the world population has recently caused unnecessary alarm because of the straight-line instinct. Experts in that field agree that the world population will reach a peak before it reaches 12 billion. As with the little boy’s height, the rate of increase will decrease. Pay attention to the data set for your issue of interest. It will fit one of various curves. The “straight line instinct” can mislead us in all sorts of ways. The chapter begins with reference to a WHO article from September 2014. It revealed that the number of deaths per day from Ebola were not on a straight line (1,2,3,4,5). Instead they were doubling (1, 2, 4, 8. 16). That was a red alert that this was no ordinary virus outbreak.

In Chapter 4, “the Fear Instinct,” and throughout the book, the author emphasizes real dangers that are emerging and that need our attention. Hence the importance of NOT being distracted by things that are frightening but very unlikely to materialize: “Something frightening poses a perceived risk. Something dangerous poses a real risk. Paying too much attention to what is frightening rather than what is dangerous – that is, paying too much attention to fear – creates a tragic drainage of energy in the wrong directions.” In North America, there is probably more fear of terrorists than of drunk drivers; yet “the risk that your loved one will be killed by a drunk driver is nearly 50 times higher than the risk that he or she will be killed by a terrorist.”

Chapter 5, “The Size Instinct,” alerts us to our frequent tendency to vastly exaggerate something that is in fact a tiny fraction of the real problem we need to address. Chapter 6, “The Generalization Instinct,” reminds us that (we cannot do without generalizations but) “wrong generalizations are mind-blockers for all kinds of understanding.” A gang member may be a brilliantly generous and kind person; and a medical expert may be exactly wrong about a public health issue. So replace your generalizations with better ones. In Chapter 7, “The Destiny Instinct,” we learn that in Iran women currently have excellent health education and a birth rate slightly lower (1.6 children per woman) than in the US (1.9), information on which the western media had been silent. Muslim countries are NOT destined to lag behind our country. Get over your destiny instinct. Collect examples of recent cultural changes; ask older people about how things were different in their day; and update your knowledge regularly. If you’re going to read just one chapter in this book, I suggest Chapter 8, “The Single Perspective Instinct.” We love simple ideas, like “the free market will solve all problems, just don’t let governments interfere with free markets” or “Inequality is the source of all our problems and the solution to all problems is to re-distribute resources.” But supporting or opposing just one perspective makes us blind to information that doesn’t fit. This is usually a bad approach if we want to understand reality. “Instead, constantly test your favourite ideas for weakness. Be humble about the extent of your expertise. Be curious about new information that doesn’t fit, and information from other fields. And rather than talking only to people who agree with you, or collecting examples that fit your ideas, see people who contradict you, disagree with you, and put forward different ideas as a great resource for understanding the world.” Instead of just one perspective (a hammer that makes everything look like a nail), we should get a toolbox. Chapter 9, “The Blame Instinct,” advise us to look for causes (including the complexities of those causes) for anything you observe, rather than looking for villains to blame or heroes to worship. Chapter 10, “The Urgency Instinct,” advises us to take small steps rather than to go for grand solutions (remember that synopsis of A Thousand Small Sanities?). When you hear about a “crisis,” slow down, take a deep breath, ask for the facts of what is going on. Beware of fortune-tellers and be wary of drastic action.